Time to invest?
Escrito por Mariano Lozano - Sunday, 2 November 20088 comentarios
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I was reading the last comments on La Charca when something has come up to my mind. We were talking about some light of hopeness in this crisis because of some news which tell us that the new home prices are rising with shyness but rising. Used homes market is still slow but awaking slowly as well.
Is this really the beginning of the end?
I’m wondering… if I had some money still sleeping… is this a good opportunity to invest it anywhere? Stocks? Real Estate?
What do you think?
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Nooo, not the begining of the end yet, Mariano. I’m afraid this sounds more to me like sugar-coating what’s happening (dorando la pildora) in the current market. The peaks I am sure they are happening- but you have to be cautious about interpreting that type of event from the news.
Example: I am stil receiving e-mails from a realtor I met in Miami last year, when because of my job I was prospecting purchasing a condo or similar in South Florida. I hate to say it, but the reason I keep getting these e-mails is because she needs the business (I already had told her no last year)
Example: I read an interesting comment recently during a blog-browsing session that talked about a reported recent median increase in home sales (comment from bobble)-
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/06/home-prices-have-risen-3-straight.html
When I read that comment, I thought about it and then caught-on to what that guy meant by the shift in the Median being caused by expensive home sales- this is exactly what people are trying to do, buy houses that were once out of reach from them, figuring the value will turn up later on! So that guy is right- the percieved sales are happening, but not in the “natural” market, and this skews the reported statistics
Example: Then I recalled this news piece-
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/633199.html
I thought this was interesting because, with the currency exchange -and the Euro being stronger- anyone outside the U.S. has more power to purchase real-estate. And if they are still not buying at this time with that edge, who else can?
So, like Cowboy would say (sorry for the pun, Cowboy)- we are still in the eye of the storm! But hey- we are halfway there now! : )
As for the investing, I think there is more promise right now. I read somewhere recently that stocks and investments hinge on emotion more than fundamentals, and the fact that an optimisit change in the presidency is about to occur later today(?). This may get people to start becoming optimists about the economy once more, which I agree that could happen.
So I would start lookiing for investments, because you may want to get in early. Not real-estate yet; gold continues to raise in value (I’m investing in that), and but I hear there are some global markets that may become stronger once the Summit thing starts rolling (maybe the current Spanish administration should look into that instead of trying to get past their “non-grata” image on these proceedings)
And now that I said all of this, maybe I too should start doing more of what I just said…
Polo-Go, definitely makes sense what you say. I hope that those small rising peaks won’t be the beginning of more droppings.
Let’s hold for some time but maybe it’s a good idea take a closer look to markets.
Actually we are going to buy some new 403 (it is like the 401), taking advantage that the price of the stocks it is pretty low now and we believe they should rise in the future.
That is actually good for you, Cowboy- but the advantage that you may have over the other USLive/La Cienaga posters is that you are associated with a non-profit entity and thus have exclusiveness to the 403(b) benefit.
Anyhow- Mariano, yourself, and the rest of us can still see some possible “optimism” on investing in the near future -regardless of investment vehicle- as these news have started to surface before year’s end:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/how-to-invest-in-the-obama-recovery.aspx
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28084078/
(The second link vouches for what was reported in the MoneyCentral article)
I am personally going to look into these options, because I am close to the action with this and will be able to tell if this “investment in infrastructures” proposal really does take off. So in the meantime, I guess I’ll keep y’all posted!
PS- I just happen to bump into this same article, but in EL PAIS:
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Obama/promete/reconstruir/America/elpepuint/20081207elpepiint_1/Tes
It’s funny yet interesting that EL PAIS would start devoting a daily section on the happenings from Washington since the election…(NO politics- just an observation)
Definitely I’ll take a look through those links. In a first sight they look very interesting and the 401k link need more attention from me.
After the disaster with my 401k, hopefully I’m still young :-D, I need to fix it just in case…
El Pais is in love with Obama…
I have a meeting with the insurance salesman next week, I will tell you about it.
Don’t worry Mariano, they will end up with a broken heart. ;)
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